Egis - Understanding impacts of airspace redesign

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Projects •Understanding impacts of airspace redesign

Understanding impacts of airspace redesign.

The Netherlands, Europe

Sensitivity analysis on aspects of a future Schiphol TMA route design.

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Client

The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (MINIENW)

Timeline

July 2021 - March 2022

Environmental benefit

We modelled fuel burn and noise impacts as part of the sensitivity analysis for the development of future operations at Schiphol TMA.

Qualitative and quantitative analysis to identify interdependencies and outcomes.

156Individual Scenarios

Across six key measures defined and tested for 2025 and 2035 time horizons

588AirTOp runs

Exploring operational impacts using fast time simulation modelling

96AEDT runs

To increase knowledge of the relationship between measures and environmental impact

The challenge.

Redesigning complex airspace around one of the world’s busiest airport hubs.

The Netherlands has established a multi-stakeholder Dutch Airspace Redesign Project (DARP) to develop a long-term solution (targeting 2035) for Netherlands airspace using a number of novel airspace measures.

To better understand the key interdependencies between various airspace measures that may end up being implemented as part of the DARP vision, Egis was asked to conduct a sensitivity analysis on possible relationships and mechanisms related to the redesign of the Schiphol Terminal Manoeuvring Area (TMA) – not only for the key airspace measures, operational concepts and technologies envisaged by DARP, but also for any other potentially relevant measures that are currently being developed as part of other research initiatives (ie. SESAR, NextGen, FASI UK etc.).

Imagine.

Looking beyond the brief to the wider impacts.

The brief from MINIENW consisted of two high level research questions:

Research question 1: “What effects … can the proposed measures … have at the time of the first implementation step planned for 2025?”

Research question 2: “Which … measures … are important to guarantee the progression towards the best possible result in 2035? It is important to gain insight into the effects of the measures and the mechanism behind them. This insight can be obtained by performing a sensitivity analysis on these measures.”

Our research assessed four airspace measures envisaged for the Schiphol TMA from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives, taking into account as many known assumptions as possible on the likely future operational concept(s) envisaged for both 2025 and 2035. The four key measures investigated were:

Horizontal/vertical spacing of routes (‘tubes’)
Descent/climb gradients
Accuracy of traffic delivery from en-route to terminal airspace; and
Tracking of tubes up to 6,000ft AGL.

More detail on DARP, including the four measures above can be found here.

Create.

A tailored research and modelling approach.

The research performed by Egis focused on the four key measures identified by DARP to help the future finetuning process for the development of a TMA route design for Schiphol airport. However, by the time these measures are fully implemented (2025-2035), all are likely to be influenced by other developments in the field of air traffic management, route/airspace design and/or aircraft performance and operating procedures.

To identify these potentially influential developments, the Egis team conducted a wide-ranging literature and project review and highlighted several additional ‘potentially relevant’ measures to include for further consideration by DARP.

Achieve.

Well-informed and evidenced answers.

For the four original DARP measures, we provided a detailed qualitative assessment and, where possible, evidenced any statements through quantitative analysis. For the other measures, we elaborated a high-level qualitative analysis and a list of possible interdependencies and mechanisms.

To derive the findings, four distinct analysis techniques and modelling methods were employed:

Desktop research: Using information from the public domain as well as from sources not yet publicly available, it was possible to identify the general operating mechanisms of each considered measure, its maturity levels (likelihood to be ready for implementation by 2025-2035) and its potential implications for other measures.
Expert judgement: Having carried out previous work on climb and descent gradients and noise/fuel burn trade-offs, Egis provided its own insight into selected research questions. Wherever possible, the results of previous Egis projects were used to demonstrate some of the expected mechanisms and potential quantitative impacts.
Fast time simulations: Schiphol airspace is a complex environment, so we adopted a unified approach to all activities to represent interdependencies in the service chain. Using an AirTOp fast time simulation model allowed the Egis team to consider many significant relationships between a greater number of actors in the complex ATM operating environment (compared to spreadsheet modelling for example), and thereby to provide better-informed answers to quantitative questions (although dependent on the assumptions used in the model).
Environmental modelling: To ensure that the solutions envisaged by DARP contribute towards aviation sustainability initiatives like the European Green Deal and Destination 2050, based on a concept design for the future Schiphol TMA, we modelled the fuel burn and noise impact of some of the airspace measures considered in this research using aviation environmental impact assessment software AEDT.

The in-depth knowledge and flexible attitude of Egis helped us sharpen our thoughts about complex changes to the airspace management of The Netherlands.