As Europe’s skies grew busier in the summer of 2024, the challenges faced by the air traffic management (ATM) system intensified. According to EUROCONTROL’s recent performance overview, air traffic saw a 4.8% increase over the previous summer. While this growth signals a recovery from past years, it has also put significant pressure on the ATM network, resulting in a 41% rise in air traffic flow management (ATFM) delays.
This summer, 5.4 minutes of delay per flight were attributed to ATFM issues. The increase is driven by a combination of factors, including adverse weather, capacity constraints, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine.
Unpredictable weather continued to have a significant impact on Europe's air traffic management systems this summer, highlighting the growing challenge of climate volatility. As adverse weather events increase, so do the demands on ATM systems that are already stretched. Capacity shortfalls further exacerbate these issues, reflecting a widening gap between air traffic demand and the system’s ability to cope. Staffing remains a persistent challenge for maintaining smooth network operations, even though air traffic control (ATC) staff delays haven’t worsened since last year. Arrival punctuality also paints a concerning picture. Only 65% of flights arrived within 15 minutes of their scheduled time, meaning that 35% of flights arrived more than 15 minutes late! Such numbers highlight the broader implications of the delays, not only for air traffic management but also for passengers and airlines across Europe.
Another interesting and somewhat underreported issue this summer was the sharp rise in flights not adhering to their planned vertical flight paths. Almost 600,000 flights deviated from their planned vertical levels, representing a 60% increase compared to 2023 . Some clients also report issues with adherence to horizontal flight efficiency in sectors close to full capacity. Planning relies on flight plans with real-time information typically arriving only 15 minutes before the flight enters the sector, leaving controllers little wiggle room to adjust to weather diversions and the like. What drives this behaviour? Could it be a strategic choice, with airlines making last-minute adjustments to secure better slots or more efficient altitudes? Or might it be that unexpected weather conditions prompt such changes? Another possibility is airspace congestion, forcing pilots to adapt mid-flight. Could competitive pressures to stay on schedule also be at play? These deviations create ripple effects, making it harder for air navigation service providers (ANSPs) to maintain smooth operations, leading to even more delays.
While these challenges are complex, efforts are underway across Europe to address them. For instance, ANSPs are increasingly looking for tailored support to improve system procurement and operational efficiency. In recent years, Egis has assisted ANSPs with ATM system upgrades and procurement challenges, ensuring systems can cope with increasing traffic demands and unpredictability by improving flexibility and responsiveness. However, new systems are not a panacea. Even when they are present, in high-capacity environments ATCOs can lack the time to think about sending extended OLDI messages or doing what-if tests because they are focusing purely on keeping flights safe, but that means changes to systems and advanced functionalities are not always delivering the promised benefits!
Meanwhile, the drive towards digitalisation continues. Egis’s work supporting the SESAR Joint Undertaking (SJU) and the COOPANS partnership of ANSPs on SESAR projects, particularly implementing Virtual Centre solutions, aims to increase flexibility and efficiency in ATM operations. However, as the 2024 summer season has shown, digitalisation cannot solve everything. Airspace is finite, and when it’s not used as planned, even the most advanced systems will struggle to prevent delays.
Dashboards can help ANSPs make proactive adjustments to optimise performance, enabling them to monitor metrics such as delays, capacity, and vertical and horizontal flight efficiency, and offering a dynamic view that can be filtered and customised. Egis has been developing these kinds of dashboards for clients including PANSA and FABCE, which have helped improve situational awareness and allowed them to react swiftly to operational disruptions. At the strategic level, they also empower data-driven decision-making, allowing management to quickly identify trends and anticipate operational challenges.
As the industry moves towards more digitalised and automated systems, it is clear that both long-term innovations and short-term operational improvements are necessary to manage Europe’s increasingly complex airspace. Indeed, my colleague Philip Church examines this issue in further depth in the latest edition of EUROCONTROL’s Skyway Magazine. Current trends indicate that demand will remain (or grow), and weather impacts will continue to worsen, leading to ongoing system pressures and inevitable delays. So, we need to focus on what we can control and manage while we prepare for strategic developments and advanced systems to come onstream.
