Developing future-ready and resilient airports
Deciding where an airport, its organisation, processes, infrastructure, and operations will be in the next 15, 20 or 30 years is not a guessing game. It is a rigorous process that must take into account internal and external factors, resulting in a thorough analysis of the airport’s drivers and constraints, opportunities and threats. Aviation is a slow-moving and very long-term industry, with returns on investment measured in decades, which means that change cannot happen overnight and must be carefully anticipated.
There are many factors to consider, and the changing nature of air travel makes it even more difficult for an airport to set a clear vision. However, as we look to the future of the industry, key trends are emerging in which airports - as key hubs and pillars of the system - will be core drivers of change, as well as places of transformation. Operators and owners will need to look at:
- Changes in passenger demand and type of traffic: ACI World predicts an average annual growth of 5.8% in passenger traffic between now and 2040, but we also know that disruptions are likely to occur (eg pandemics, state conflicts, economic crises). These uncertainties make it difficult for airports to develop reliable long-term forecasts. In addition, emerging air mobility operations, new aircraft types and traffic patterns need to be considered as part of the aviation landscape.
- Policies & regulations: Regulatory changes at the national, regional or international level affect airports in many ways, whether these changes relate to health and safety, security, accessibility, passenger rights regimes, sustainability and environmental initiatives, infrastructure and operations. Airports are likely to face rising costs of compliance at a time when their profitability is still fragile. They need to understand how, when, and whether these regulations and standards will affect their development.
- Technology: Technological innovation is a megatrend in aviation that applies to many processes and operations such as passenger flow and experience, airside and landside operations and aircraft. Airports need to plan how to invest in, deploy and maximise the benefits of technology while considering cybersecurity and greater collaboration with data owners.
- Safety & security: Airports must maintain safety and security at all times to protect both employees and travellers, as well as their information and systems. The introduction of new technologies and changes in operations and processes require robust assessments to identify, deter and mitigate risks now and in the future.
- Environmental impact: Sustainability and the drive towards net zero in aviation, whether mandatory or voluntary, are among the most important trends. They are likely to underpin all the other factors when considering airport projects and development. This is undoubtedly a daunting challenge that requires a clear strategy and detailed roadmaps to plan the way forward.
- Energy transition: low-emission aircraft powered by hydrogen or solar innovations are not yet flying in our skies but airports are already considering different energy mixes to meet their own needs, both airside and landside, and to reduce their emissions. Electrification, sustainable aviation fuels and hydrogen will be part of the mix, turning airports into energy hubs, that also serve the needs of nearby communities. Master plans and roadmaps are essential tools to guide this transition.
- Communities: Ensuring harmony with the local community in the future could involve increasing the services and utilities provided by airports, which in turn generate non-aeronautical revenues, while at the same time addressing noise issues. A kind of mutually beneficial partnership, supported by greater consultation and engagement.
- Land use: With stricter regulations on new construction, net land take in Europe, and limited availability of surrounding land, airports are facing increasing constraints in their search for capacity. Smart land planning is key, with a vision that should take into account competing uses and consider regional development schemes with public/private stakeholders where airports can be partners and key assets.
- Economic considerations: What will tomorrow’s drivers of airport economic growth be, and where should they invest? Airports need reliable plans to expand operations, manage assets profitably, and deliver economic benefits to all stakeholders. Looking to the future requires careful planning of capital investment programmes and a good understanding of the financial implications of their decisions.
All these factors form a complex picture that owners and operators need to look at simultaneously to understand how they interact and synergise. Timely and proper planning will avoid airports that are inappropriately sized or located, unprepared for adverse impacts, or with wasted capital and capacity.
